Forthcoming in Philosophy and Phenomenological Research. Penultimate version. Subjunctive credences and semantic humility

Forthcoming in Noûs. Penultimate version. Credal dilemmas

Formal epistemologists traditionally model rational states of partial belief with probability measures, functions that map each proposition to a single real number. But many have recently rejected this model as excessively precise. Sometimes your evidence for a certain claim is unspecific. And many have argued that the rational response to unspecific evidence is to have credences that are impre...

Counteractuals, Counterfactuals and Semantic Intuitions

Machery et al. (Cognition 92: B1–B12, 2004 ; Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 79: 332–356, 2009a , Analysis 69: 689–694, b ; Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 86: 618–635, 2012 ) claim that analytic philosophers of language are committed to a method of cases (MC) according to which theories of reference are assessed by consulting semantic intuitions about actual and possible case...

Subjunctive credences and semantic humility

In light of the chance that the plate will be saved by a sudden gust of hot air, what should we say about the truth conditions of the ordinary conditional (1b)? Some theories predict that (1b) is true. For instance, Lewis 1973b says that the plate being saved by friendly air currents is a remarkable low-probability event, and that worlds where such events happen are farther away than worlds whe...

Overdetermination Underdetermined

(Penultimate Version; final version forthcoming in Erkenntnis) Sara Bernstein Nonreductionists about minds and material objects think they have faced down the challenges posed by widespread causal overdetermination. Famously, Kim attacked nonreductive physicalism about the mental on the grounds that it would involve ubiquitous overdetermination of physical effects by mental and physical propert...

Broome on Moral Goodness and Population Ethics Forthcoming in Philosophy & Phenomenological Research